Mesoscale Discussion 2354
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026
Areas affected...portions of southeast Georgia into the northern
Florida Peninsula
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101746Z - 101915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible with wet downbursts
within the stronger storms this afternoon. The severe threat should
be isolated, with a WW issuance not expected.
DISCUSSION...A somewhat organized line of multicells and short
linear segments have developed with the primary confluence band
pendant from Isaias' remnants, which is progressing eastward toward
a destabilizing airmass. Adequate insolation is supporting surface
temperatures reaching 90 F amid upper 70s F dewpoints, contributing
to 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite the magnitude of buoyancy present,
mid-level lapse rates are poor (e.g. around 5.5 C/km per 12Z
regional observed soundings), with instability confined to tall but
thin profiles. Furthermore, vertical wind shear is modest, comprised
of 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear, whose vectors are roughly
parallel to the confluence boundary.
Given veered, nearly unidirectional wind profiles, the tornado
threat should remain quite limited and brief. Given these factors,
the current thinking is that wet downbursts with the stronger storms
may produce a few damaging gusts. Still, this threat is also brief
and localized, so a WW issuance is not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 10/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...TBW...JAX...TAE...
LAT...LON 29728380 31318302 31778250 31848189 31728134 31368114
30648143 29968209 29538274 29418302 29448338 29728380
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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