Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026
647 WTPZ33 KNHC 082051 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rachel Advisory Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026 ...RACHEL WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND HEAD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 124.6W ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and southern California should monitor the progress of Rachel. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for a portion of this area tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 124.6 West. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, occurs on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern portion of Baja California late Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the couple of days, but Rachel is still expected to be at tropical storm strength when it approaches northern Baja California. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Rachel and the moisture associated with the system will also bring rainfall of 1 to 3 inches, with maximum amounts locally up to 5 inches across the higher terrain, across portions of the Southwest United States this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and potential for flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ero. SURF: Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: The risk of tropical-storm-force winds is increasing for portions of northern Baja California through extreme northwestern Mexico this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Watch may be required for a portion of that area later tonight. Strong gusty winds associated with the system are expected to spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States, especially in areas of higher terrain, from this weekend into early next week. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Katz/Brown
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