Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 080841 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number 45 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 AM PDT Thu Oct 08 2026 Dry air continues to eat away at Rachel's convection. Satellite imagery over the last couple of hours depicts noticeable degradation across the western semicircle, with deep convection weakening throughout the storm as seen through warming cloud-top temperatures. While TAFB's subjective Dvorak intensity estimate was unchanged at 4.0/65 kt, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have trended downward. As a result of this, combined with the weakening trend seen through satellite imagery, the initial intensity was set at 60 kt, and Rachel has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. The initial motion was estimated at 290/7 kt. Rachel appears to have gained a slight amount of speed since last advisory, its motion driven primarily by high pressure anchored over the southwestern US. However, a mid- to upper-level trough currently sweeping across the Pacific is forecast to pick up Rachel and turn it to the northeast in approximately 24 hours. This will coincide with an increase in forward speed. While track guidance continues to exhibit a fair amount of spread after this trough interaction, skilled guidance has become more aligned on a solution since the last advisory. The latest NHC track forecast nudges Rachel's trajectory more towards HCCA and GDMI, which results in a slight shift toward the right as the storm the storm approaches northern Baja California. As Rachel continues to move about in an environment characterized by cooling SSTs and dry mid-level air, its convection is expected to further degrade, thus inducing further weakening. Once the aforementioned trough shifts Rachel's path, vertical wind shear is also expected to increase substantially, leading to even further weakening as the storm approaches northern Baja California and southern California. Simulated satellite imagery even suggests that Rachel may lose its deep convection altogether by the time it hits land, however strong winds and heavy rain can still be expected wherever Rachel makes landfall, either as a tropical storm or a post-tropical cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast reflects a more steady weakening trend compared to the previous advisory, with Rachel forecast to become post-tropical between 72 and 96 hours, or shortly after making landfall. Key Messages: 1. Rachel is expected to approach the coast of extreme northern Baja California and Southern California at or near tropical storm strength over the weekend, potentially bringing strong winds and coastal flooding to portions of those areas. Gusty winds could spread over interior portions of the Southwest United States into early next week. 2. Moisture associated with Rachel will spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula through this weekend. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and a threat of flash and urban flooding. 3. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.8N 123.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 22.9N 124.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 24.0N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 26.4N 119.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 30.2N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 39.9N 112.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Evans/Roberts
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