Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2026
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FOPZ15 KNHC 072039
PWSEP5
TROPICAL STORM SIMON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202026
2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2026
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SIMON WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 7(42)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 4(16)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 6(51)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 2(19)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 31(43) 2(45)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 13(61) X(61)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 59(66) 5(71) 1(72)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 8(33) X(33)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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