Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2346

   Mesoscale Discussion 2346
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2026

   Areas affected...west-central Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 061904Z - 062100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The risk for a brief tornado/waterspout will increase in
   the short term across the west-central Florida coast.

   DISCUSSION...A few transient supercells have been noted over the
   eastern Gulf offshore from the west-central FL coast. Recently, a
   more persistent and stronger rotation signature has been noted with
   a small supercell west of Tampa Bay. This cell is near the
   differential heating zone/cold front where low-level instability in
   stronger and low-level SRH is maximized near and north of the
   boundary. This cell, and others developing offshore may shift closer
   to shore over the next 1-2 hours. As this occurs, a risk for a brief
   tornado/waterspout moving onshore will be possible. The risk will
   rapidly decrease inland from the immediate coast. Given the
   generally modest environmental parameter space and very small and
   focused risk area, a watch is not expected.

   ..Leitman/Smith.. 10/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28128331 28218317 28288300 28288287 28188269 27768247
               27598248 27508249 27358263 27298277 27388301 27668317
               28058333 28128331 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH