Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 061446 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 AM PDT Tue Oct 06 2026 Satellite imagery this morning shows that Rachel's inner core has degraded, with the system now featuring a large, ragged eye. The deepest cold convection is confined mainly to the southern eyewall as the cyclone continues to encounter northeasterly wind shear and a drier mid-level environment. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB held steady at T4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 77 and 82 kt. Based on these satellite trends and intensity estimates, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is westward, or 275/7 kt. A general west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days while the system is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. In a few days, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to approach the west coast of the United States, which will weaken the ridge. This should cause Rachel to slow down, make a sharp turn toward the northeast, and increase in forward speed. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and Google DeepMind aids. The surrounding environment is starting to take its toll on Rachel, with a drier, more stable airmass and moderate northeasterly wind shear. Sea surface temperatures along the forecast track will also cool below 26C in about a day or so, which should induce a steady weakening trend. Simulated infrared imagery from the global models shows Rachel struggling to produce deep, organized convection later this week. As a result, the latest NHC forecast now indicates that Rachel will become a post-tropical cyclone by 96 h. The official NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, with gradual weakening near the upper end of the guidance suite in the short term, and then a faster weakening trend toward the consensus aids at the end of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 20.5N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 121.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.0N 124.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 22.8N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 123.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 11/1200Z 27.7N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kelly
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