Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052033 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 05 2026 The weakening trend of Rachel has paused for now. Satellite images suggest that the hurricane has become slightly better organized over the past several hours. The eye of the system is quite large, well defined and warm, and deep convection remains fairly symmetric around the center. A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports nudging the initial intensity up to 80 kt. The hurricane is moving westward at 7 kt steered by a high pressure system to the north-northeast of the cyclone. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as the high pressure system remains the primary steering feature. However, by the weekend, the high is expected to weaken as a mid- to upper-level trough amplifies near the west coast of the U.S. This pattern change should cause Rachel to slow down and then turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. No significant changes were made to the previous track forecast, and this one lies generally near the middle of the guidance envelope. Although Rachel appears a little stronger than earlier, no notable changes to the intensity forecasts were made. The hurricane is expected to gradually weaken as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into a much drier airmass. The models have not changed much this cycle, and this prediction is in line with the HCCA, GDMI, and IVCN aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 20.3N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 20.4N 119.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 20.7N 120.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 21.2N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 08/0600Z 21.6N 123.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 21.9N 124.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 22.3N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 10/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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