Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Oct 04 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 050234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 800 PM MST Sun Oct 04 2026 The satellite presentation for Rachel has degraded over the last several hours as the eye has filled in and the inner core seems to have come apart as well. Based on water vapor imagery, it appears that dry air has managed to make its way into the core of the hurricane. Using a combination of the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix and objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS, the initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt. This level of intensity could be generous given the structure of the hurricane at this time. Rachel is moving west-northwestward around 6 kt. The high pressure system to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer it on a generally westward track through the middle of the week. Afterwards, the high should weaken and shift eastward as a trough cuts off close to southern California. This should cause Rachel to turn back to the west-northwest by the end of the week. The current NHC forecast track is very close to the previous one, with minor adjustments being made based on the HCCA and GDMI forecast aids. More fluctuations in intensity are possible overnight for Rachel. However, the cyclone is expected to enter a more drier environment as it moves farther westward and the sea-surface temperatures are expected to be 26C or less in a few days. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected to start sometime on Monday and continue through the forecast period. The current NHC intensity forecast shows a weakening trend similar to the previous one, however the forecast has been adjusted based on the trends of the HCCA forecast aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 20.2N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 20.3N 115.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 20.4N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 20.4N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 07/0000Z 20.6N 120.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 07/1200Z 21.1N 121.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/0000Z 21.6N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 09/0000Z 22.2N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 10/0000Z 22.5N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
Source link