Issued at 200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 032142 CCA TCDEP3 Hurricane Rachel Discussion Number 27...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182026 200 PM MST Sat Oct 03 2026 Corrected paragraph alignment Satellite imagery suggests that Rachel has formed a larger eye this afternoon, with the inner eyewall fading away on the latest infrared data. Intensity estimates have dropped slightly, and latest subjective Dvorak CI number from TAFB was 4.5/77 kt, but the Final T-number was 4.0/65 kt. This aligns well with most UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates, which range from 63 to 77 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt. The initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/4 kt. Rachel's slow motion over the next two days will be governed by a ridge extending southwestward from a mid- to upper-level high over the western United States. Rachel is forecast to accelerate slightly after 60 h, continuing on a west to west-northwestward trajectory through the remainder of the forecast period. The updated NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and roughly follows the corrected-consensus (HCCA) aid through 120 h. Rachel is anticipated to gradually weaken through the next 24 h due to an unfavorable environment of moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, dry mid-level air, and cooler sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with Hurricane Polo's cold wake. As Rachel moves west of the wake, environmental conditions should allow for some re-intensification after the weekend through 72 h. However, beyond 72 h, Rachel will encounter an even drier air mass, with mid-level relative humidity values dipping below 40 percent. At the same time, SSTs will drop below 26 C, likely expediting the weakening trend through the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast is very similar to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 19.8N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 20.0N 113.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 20.3N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 20.5N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 20.6N 116.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 20.8N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 20.9N 120.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 21.6N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 22.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Pierce/Blake
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