Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2339

   Mesoscale Discussion 2339
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0401 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

   Areas affected...northeastern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas
   Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 302101Z - 302300Z

   CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY TEXT

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few low topped storms may produce instances of
   marginally severe hail and strong to severe wind this
   afternoon/evening.

   DISCUSSION...Cooling mid-level temperatures and increasing forcing
   for ascent with the trough behind the surface low across New Mexico
   is leading to gradual destabilization and increase in thunderstorm
   activity across northeastern New Mexico. Moisture is somewhat
   limited to the west across New Mexico, with low to mid 50s dew
   points, improving with eastward extent into the OK/TX panhandles
   with around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. This fairly marginal instability
   will be sufficient, given strong deep layer shear, for a few
   low-topped storms/transient supercells capable of marginally severe
   hail and strong to severe wind. This will shift eastward into the
   panhandles with time this evening. Overall, this potential looks to
   remain fairly isolated and watch issuance is not anticipated.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 09/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35970449 36350440 37240294 37530185 37430122 37050085
               36690069 36350072 36130093 35600233 35320339 35310404
               35970449 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN