Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2337

   Mesoscale Discussion 2337
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into extreme northern
   Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301921Z - 302145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few of the stronger storms may produce brief tornadoes
   this afternoon. Timing of a Tornado Watch is uncertain, but one will
   likely be needed at some point within the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to move northeastward, with
   airmass recovery noted with an approaching dry slot and accompanying
   70 kt 300 mb jet streak (currently over the TX Panhandle). A surface
   warm front continues to track northward, with the warm sector
   characterized by 80+ F surface temperatures and upper 60s to 70 F
   dewpoints. Along the warm front and OK/KS border, regional VADs are
   depicting appreciably curved/elongated hodographs and 200-300 m2/s2
   sfc-3km SRH given backed surface flow. The current thinking is that
   low-topped supercells will eventually develop and continue to
   intensify through the afternoon as destabilization continues along
   the warm front and the 300 mb jet streak overspreads KS. Storms near
   the warm front will have the best low-level rotation potential, with
   a few tornadoes possible (albeit brief given poor tropospheric lapse
   rates and marginal MLCAPE constrained to very thin profiles).

   The primary question at the moment is when storms will become severe
   given the anticipated slow storm evolution. As such, convective
   trends will continue to be closely monitored to determine the most
   appropriate time for Tornado Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37239961 38239932 38929890 39369855 39599808 39749690
               39559613 38999565 37629604 36979697 36789744 36679789
               36639857 36679909 37239961 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH