Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 300837 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192026 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 30 2026 Apart from some intermittent bursts of deep convection north and east of the center, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is all but devoid of convection. Visible satellite imagery continues to depict a closed circulation, albeit slightly elongated. A 0531 UTC METOP-C scatterometer pass confirmed an elongated circulation, with peak winds of around 20 kt surrounding the center. The latest TAFB Dvorak fix was T2.0/30 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is held at 25 kt. The initial motion has shifted slightly east-southeastward, now at 110/08 kt. The depression is expected to maintain a generally east-southeastward path, with slight wobbles in its track, as it is steered by a northward-displaced monsoon trough. The updated NHC track forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory, roughly in between the simple (TVCN) and corrected consensus (HCCA) aids. Nineteen-E is forecast to remain in a relatively hostile environment marked by moderate vertical wind shear within a moisture-starved environment. The depression is anticipated to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within 36 h, but given how little convection has persisted over the last several hours, it is very possible that this transition could occur sooner. The biggest source of uncertainty in the forecast is the degree to which diurnally enhanced convection will occur, if at all. The latest intensity forecast keeps the depression's strength steady through the forecast period, following the middle of the model envelope, with dissipation still expected to occur within 60 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 13.6N 129.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 14.1N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 14.5N 125.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.7N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 02/0600Z 14.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Roberts
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