Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026
201 WTPA42 PHFO 300236 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 38 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM HST Tue Sep 29 2026 Nolo continues to weaken this afternoon due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry air entraining into the circulation. Satellite imagery shows the low-level center becoming partially exposed, with deep convection decreasing in coverage and cloud tops warming. The latest subjective Dvorak Current Intensity estimates from JTWC and HFO are both 65 kt, while objective estimates range from 65 to 75 kt. Given the degraded satellite presentation and decreasing intensity estimates, the initial intensity is lowered to 75 kt. Nolo has started to slow down and is moving northward, or 360/5 kt. This trend will continue tonight into Wednesday as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough. As a mid-level ridge builds north of Nolo, a sharp westward turn is forecast by early Wednesday, followed by a generally westward motion through the remainder of the week. The latest track guidance remains in decent agreement on this, although some cross-track spread persists. The latest GDMI and HCCA guidance has shifted southward from the previous cycle, taking Nolo slightly farther away from French Frigate Shoals, Maro Reef, and Lisianski Island as it moves westward. The ECMWF and GFS remain on the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the GDMI and HCCA are on the northern side. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous prediction and lies between these solutions. Nolo is forecast to accelerate westward later this week and into the weekend as the ridge becomes more established north of the cyclone. Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air are expected to continue affecting Nolo during the next 36 to 48 h. These hostile environmental conditions should result in additional weakening, and Nolo is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday. The shear is expected to relax in about 48 to 60 h, allowing environmental conditions to become more favorable for re-strengthening. However, the dry mid-level environment could limit the rate of intensification despite the warm sea surface temperatures. The latest NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, showing continued weakening during the next couple of days before gradual re-strengthening begins. Nolo is forecast to regain hurricane intensity by Friday and strengthen somewhat thereafter. The intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 22.0N 164.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 22.4N 164.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 22.5N 164.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 22.7N 166.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/1200Z 22.9N 166.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 23.1N 168.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 23.8N 173.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 25.3N 179.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs
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