Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2336

   Mesoscale Discussion 2336
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains into far
   east-central New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 292326Z - 300130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional mini supercells may continue to pose a risk of
   a brief/weak tornado for the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Cellular convection continues to evolve along the
   northern periphery of low-level warm advection focused across parts
   of the TX Panhandle west-southwestward into far east-central NM.
   While buoyancy in this corridor is weak, a moist environment (upper
   60s dewpoints) and a small clockwise-curved hodograph (sampled by
   the AMA VWP) could continue to support occasional mini supercell
   structures -- similar to what occurred approximately 40 miles east
   of Amarillo, TX during the last hour. Any brief/weak tornado risk
   should generally be associated with favorable/low-predictability
   cell interactions in this corridor for the next few hours, and
   overall confidence in this scenario remains low.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 09/29/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34930075 33970309 33980362 34120386 34330396 34540392
               34980325 35810122 35900053 35740028 35450019 35130031
               34930075 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH