Mesoscale Discussion 2333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0306 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026
Areas affected...portions of south-central into southeastern New
Mexico
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 292006Z - 292130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe gust or a brief tornado are possible
through the remainder of the afternoon. The severe threat should
remain quite sparse, so a WW issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A small QLCS segment appears to be intensifying based
on KHDX and MRMS mosaic radar data as it approaches a destabilizing
airmass. South and east of the ongoing storms, surface temperatures
are climbing into the 70s F amid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding
over 500 J/kg MLCAPE. Despite marginal instability, strong mid to
upper southwesterly flow overspreading weaker southerlies is
supporting 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, favoring storm
organization. Given that much of this shear is within the sfc-3 km
layer, a few embedded mesovortices may develop, and if they do so
over a surface-based airmass, a severe wind gust or brief tornado
may occur. The favorable overlap of CAPE and vertical wind shear is
modest at best, so the severe threat should remain sparse,
precluding a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Mosier.. 09/29/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32850664 33400614 33570583 33790513 33720407 33160380
32610374 32210388 32080422 32120517 32220600 32410630
32850664
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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