Issued at 200 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026
000 WTPZ32 KNHC 282048 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Polo Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 200 PM MST Mon Sep 28 2026 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT POLO IS STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE NEARING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING NOW BEGINNING OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 113.0W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, from Punta Abreojos to Santa Fe * East coast of Baja California Sur, from Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista * Mainland Mexico from Bahia Kino to Huatabampito A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur, north of Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia. * East coast of Baja California Sur, south of Loreto to San Evaristo. * Mainland Mexico south of Huatabampito to Topolobampo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case late this afternoon into Tuesday. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed or rushed to completion shortly. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case over the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case over the next 12 hours. Interests in the remainder of Baja California Sur, and the remainder of Sonora and northern Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Polo. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Polo was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 113.0 West. Polo is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with gradual acceleration is expected this evening through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Polo is expected to move inland along the coast of Baja California Sur later this evening, then move inland into southern Sonora on Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible this afternoon, but Polo is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on the west coast of Baja California Sur this evening. Polo is also expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico early Tuesday morning. Rapid weakening is expected after Polo moves well inland into mainland Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by earlier aircraft dropsonde data is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Polo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area along the west coast of Baja California Sur shortly, with tropical storm conditions ongoing in the southern portion of the warning area. These conditions are expected to spread northward and eastward across Baja California Sur during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and possible in the watch area in mainland northwestern Mexico early Tuesday with tropical storm conditions expected to begin tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of southern New Mexico and far western Texas where strong gusty winds are possible late Tuesday and Tuesday night in association with Polo’s remnants. Refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information. RAINFALL: Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches are expected across southern and central portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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