Issued at 500 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026
000 WTPA42 PHFO 271500 TCDCP2 Hurricane Nolo Discussion Number 28 NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP152026 Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM HST Sun Sep 27 2026 Nolo's structure has continued to improve over the last several hours with the eye becoming better defined as as cloud tops have cooled around the center of the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is sill investigating Nolo at this time and so far have found peak flight level winds around 92 kt, which would support for an intensity around 85 kt. There was also a dropsonde in the northwest eyewall that observed a 500 m layer average of 104 kt. In addition, the objective intensity estimates are in the range of 87-109 kt. With the current improvement in the stucture of Nolo, the lowering minimum pressure observed with the aircraft, and assuming higher flight-level winds exist in the north eyewall where the aircraft has not yet sampled, the initial intensity has been raised to 90 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving mainly west-southwestward or 250/9 kt. Nolo is expected to continue to move on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so. Afterwards, the cyclone should turn northwestward due to the influence of a mid- to upper-level low. At the end of the forecast period, Nolo should then turn back to the west again, as the hurricane rotated around the northern side of the low. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one just some minor adjustments based on the HCCA and the GDMI forecast aids. The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable environment with low wind shear and warm sea-surface temperatures. This should allow for continued intensification for the next 24 hours, and Nolo is forecast to become a major hurricane in the next 12 h and peak as a category 4 hurricane. After 48 h, gradual weakening is expected as the SHIPS model outputs indicate that wind shear will increase in the 48-96 h period due to the interaction with the upper-level low. Beyond 96 h, the wind shear may relax again and this could allow some restrengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is still on the high end of the guidance envelope, but slightly under the HCCA and some of the hurricane regional models. Key Messages: 1. Strong and gusty winds are expected for all of the Hawaiian Islands through today, and interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Nolo. 2. Heavy rain and flooding threats from Nolo are diminishing across the Hawaiian Islands as the storm continues to move to the west-southwest away from the Islands. 3. Large and damaging waves are likely along portions of the Big Island's coastline through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 16.2N 158.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 16.3N 159.7W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 17.0N 161.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 18.4N 162.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 20.3N 163.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 30/0000Z 21.8N 163.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 22.4N 164.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 22.6N 165.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 23.0N 168.2W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Papin
Source link