Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 270254 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 26 2026 Odalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts that the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of the deeper convection displaced north of the center. This is clear evidence of strong vertical wind shear undercutting the outflow layer. The latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB came in at T4.5/77 kt, but objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS continue to fall, ranging from 63–66 kt. Based on a blend of these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt, which may still be generous. Initial motion is estimated due north at 360/6 kt. Little change has been made to the track reasoning. Odalys is expected to continue northward as a deep-layer trough steers the vertically coherent cyclone. Once the system decouples, motion should turn abruptly south-southeastward in 24 to 36 h under the steering influence of a low-level ridge positioned to the northwest. The updated NHC track forecast closely tracks the previous advisory, aligned with the HCCA and GDMI ensemble consensus aids. Over the next few days, Odalys will encounter an increasingly hostile environment, as the strong vertical wind shear is unlikely to abate, and the hurricane is already surrounded by an abundance of dry air while traversing through significantly cooler sea surface temperatures. This will ultimately result in Odalys rapidly weakening throughout the forecast period, becoming a post-tropical cyclone in about 36 h, if not sooner, as indicated by the latest simulated satellite forecast from both the GFS and ECMWF runs. Distant moisture from both Hurricanes Odalys and Polo will be transported into the southwestern United States late this weekend and early next week, and may indirectly contribute to a heavy rainfall and flash flood threat in the region. See products issued by the Weather Prediction Center for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 21.1N 123.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 21.9N 123.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 22.3N 123.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.1N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 29/0000Z 21.2N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/1200Z 20.1N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/0000Z 19.2N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pierce/Hagen
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