Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 241453 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Odalys has strengthened this morning. The satellite presentation consists of a -82C Central Dense Overcast (CDO) located over an eye feature depicted in a 1132 UTC AMSR-3 Microwave color composite image, and a spiral band wrapping around the surface center from the northwest. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt and is based on a compromise of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Although moderate deep-layer shear continues to inhibit significant strengthening, intensity may fluctuate in the short term. By the weekend, Odalys should encounter increasing southwesterly shear and progressively cooler water. As a result, gradual weakening is expected through the forecast period, and Odalys should become a post-tropical cyclone early next week. The NHC intensity forecast blends the IVCN multi-model consensus with the skilled HFIP HCCA and Google DeepMind aids. Odalys' initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/6 kt, and is being steered by a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough situated to its northwest and a subtropical high stretching southwestward from Mexico. A turn toward the northeast is expected by Friday, followed by a turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed over the weekend. By early next week, the track forecast becomes a bit hazy and Hurricane Polo is expected to be east of the cyclone and could cause direct interaction complexities in the track of Odalys. Consequently, there is quite a bit of uncertainty with considerable increasing model guidance spread. Further complicating the track forecast is how quickly Odalys weakens and becomes vertically challenged while being steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and GDMI aids. Odalys' wind radii were adjusted based on a 0749 UTC OSCAT-3 scatterometer overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 125.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 16.9N 124.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 17.8N 123.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 18.6N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 19.6N 123.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 22.4N 122.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 22.7N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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