Issued at 300 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026
719 WTPZ42 KNHC 240833 TCDEP2 Hurricane Polo Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172026 300 AM CST Thu Sep 24 2026 Polo remains a powerful category 5 hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the cyclone is maintaining a clear, distinct, and circular eye surrounded by an intense and symmetric ring of deep convection. The initial intensity is held at 140 kt, near the upper end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Although the core of the hurricane is about 50 to 100 n mi off the coast of southwestern Mexico, outer rainbands are spreading onshore and producing heavy rains. ASCAT data was helpful in adjusting the initial wind radii, confirming that tropical-storm-force winds are likely occurring along the coast of southwestern Mexico. After jogging to the north last night, Polo appears to be on a more steady northwestward track now, with the initial motion estimated to be 310/8 kt. A building mid-level ridge over northern Mexico and the south-central U.S. should cause Polo to accelerate to the west-northwest over the next couple of days, taking the system away from southwestern Mexico during that time. Polo will likely reach the western periphery of the ridge over the weekend, and that should cause the hurricane to turn northward toward the Baja California Peninsula late this weekend and early next week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and based on a blend of the HCCA, GDMI, and TVCN aids. Fluctuations in strength seem likely over the next day or so while Polo remains in favorable environmental conditions, and any changes in strength during that time will likely be linked to internal dynamics. However, gradual weakening is expected this weekend and early next week due to an increase in vertical wind shear. Regardless, Polo is forecast to be a major hurricane during the next several days. This intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and in best agreement with the HCCA guidance. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico today. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the coast within the warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo today. 3. Polo is forecast to approach the Baja California Peninsula early next week as a hurricane. Interests there should closely monitor the latest updates and ensure that they have their preparedness plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 16.5N 103.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 16.9N 104.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W 145 KT 165 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 17.3N 108.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 60H 26/1800Z 18.7N 111.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 26.1N 112.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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