Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 232053 TCDEP1 Hurricane Odalys Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026 Odalys' convective organization has not changed much in the past several hours. However, the hurricane continues to produce very deep convection near the center, with cloud-top temperatures as cold as -90 C. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB came in at 4.0/65 kt, and objective estimates of DMINT and ADT from UW-CIMSS showed values of 68 and 72, respectively. Given these data and the deeper convection, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt. Multiple microwave imagery passes helped refine the position for Odalys, requiring an amendment of the best track a bit to the south. The initial motion is estimated to be about 85/6 kt. Odalys is being steered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest and a ridge extending southwestward from central Mexico. The hurricane is forecast to turn toward the northeast and then north, on the southeastern side of the trough in the next day or so. Beyond day 3, the steering pattern becomes ill-defined, and potential interaction with Hurricane Polo could complicate the track of Odalys late in the forecast period. There is considerable uncertainty at this time as the spread of the model envelope is much larger than normal. The updated NHC track forecast is near the previous advisory, and lies near the reliable HCCA and GDMI forecast guidance. For the next 48 h, Odalys is forecast to remain in a favorable environment that may allow it to strengthen or at least maintain its intensity. After that, the cyclone will move into an environment of stronger westerly vertical wind shear, lowered SSTs, and dry mid-level air. These environmental conditions will induce a steady weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows HCCA and GDMI, and aligns with the previous NHC advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.4N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.3N 123.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 18.1N 123.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0600Z 19.1N 122.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.2N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 22.5N 121.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 22.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pierce/Zelinsky
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