Hurricane Polo Forecast Advisory Number 12

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 231443
TCMEP2
 
HURRICANE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172026
1500 UTC WED SEP 23 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  927 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  35SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  55SE  55SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  80NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 210SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 101.8W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 101.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.9N 102.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  55SE  50SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.8N 105.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 107.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.2N 109.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  80SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 112.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 101.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPEP2...AT 23/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN