Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2324

   Mesoscale Discussion 2324
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

   Areas affected...parts of North Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212236Z - 220100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts may affect parts of the Metroplex later
   this evening. Isolated damaging gusts cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms that formed in southern OK
   continues to push south/southeast across the Red River, with the
   stronger storm moving through Gainesville TX. Other cells are also
   developing along the outflow, extending into northern Wise and Jack
   counties.

   Meanwhile, an older outflow boundary is pushing north and extends
   from Dallas to Hood counties. This area has become relatively hot
   today, with upper 90s to near 100 F temperatures. Surface analysis
   also indicates a low between the storms to the north and
   northward-moving outflow to the south.

   Given the steep low level lapse rates ahead of these storms (which
   are substantial in height), and possibility of increased surface
   convergence/colliding outflows, it seems possible at least strong
   outflow will affect the Metroplex later this evening, with perhaps
   locally damaging gusts assuming storm cores continue to develop as
   they approach out of the north.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33209804 33389793 33409753 33579687 33679656 33519629
               33129610 32919615 32749693 32559743 32359781 32499802
               32719808 32919813 33129806 33209804 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN