Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 202048 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162026 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Odalys continues to gradually become better organized, with very deep convection near and over the center, and some banding features evident over the southern semicircle. Upper-level outflow remains somewhat restricted over the northern quadrant of the circulation, however. This implies some northerly vertical wind shear over the storm. The estimated current intensity is increased to 45 kt based on objective and subjective Dvorak estimates and observations from a scatterometer overpass. The tropical cyclone is expected to be in an environment of low to moderate shear, over very warm waters, and within a moist low- to mid-level air mass for the next couple of days. Therefore continued strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days. Later in the forecast period, somewhat drier air and the possible inhibiting influence of a developing tropical cyclone to the east could limit strengthening. The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus. Odalys should move generally northwestward through tonight, on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge. In 24-48 hours, a 500 mb trough moving into California and Baja California should cause the system to turn eastward. Later in the forecast period, as the trough lifts out, Odalys is likely to move northeastward on the northwestern side of a mid-level ridge. The developing tropical cyclone to the east could also have some influence on the track in 3-5 days, although there is considerable uncertainty about this. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 11.7N 126.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 127.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 14.8N 129.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 15.0N 129.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 15.0N 128.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 15.1N 127.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 15.9N 126.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 17.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Source link