Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2306

   Mesoscale Discussion 2306
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Georgia into the Carolina
   Piedmont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181813Z - 182015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may bring some potential
   for isolated damaging wind gusts through this evening. Watch
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms have begun
   to initiate across portions of the central Appalachians and Carolina
   Piedmont as surface temperatures have risen into the low-90s F amid
   continued insolation. Poor mid-level lapse rates and weak deep-layer
   flow/shear will tend to limit overall convective intensity and
   organization; however, MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg coupled with steep
   low-level lapse rates and PW around 1.75-2.00 inches (as supported
   by a modified 12z GSO observed sounding and current objective
   analysis) are supportive of at least some potential for isolated
   damaging downburst wind gusts (with peak gust magnitudes likely in
   the 45-55 mph range). Locally greater potential may exist across
   portions of central North Carolina where the latest observational
   trends and CAM guidance are suggestive of greater storm coverage.
   Trends will continue to be monitored, but the overall severe threat
   is likely to remain too isolated and limited in magnitude to warrant
   watch issuance.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 09/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   34878398 36088112 36557996 36717935 36717887 36657860
               36497839 36107816 35717814 35347826 34897868 34377963
               33928105 33578270 33518354 33588423 33788465 33978476
               34328463 34658430 34878398 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH