Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2302

   Mesoscale Discussion 2302
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0246 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

   Areas affected...east-central Indiana into central Ohio

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161946Z - 162145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds of 45-60 mph will be possible with
   stronger thunderstorms developing through early evening. Overall
   risk is expected to remain limited, and a severe thunderstorm watch
   is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing near the IN/OH
   state border this afternoon. This activity is developing ahead of a
   stalled front and on the southern periphery of stronger effective
   shear located north of this boundary. Stronger heating across
   east-central IN into central OH has allowed temperatures to warm
   into the 80s to near 90 F amid mid 70s F dewpoints, resulting in
   moderate instability. Effective shear magnitudes around 20-30 kt may
   allow for some storm organization. However, weak midlevel lapse
   rates will limit longevity of any stronger/better organized
   updrafts. Nevertheless, steepened low-level lapse rates and high PW
   values could support sporadic strong outflow wind gusts. Overall,
   the risk is expected to remain limited and mostly sub-severe wind
   gusts are anticipated, precluding watch issuance.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

   LAT...LON   40178559 40798440 40878292 40458191 40008182 39698200
               39448292 39368434 39548533 39888566 40178559 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH