Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2300

   Mesoscale Discussion 2300
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

   Areas affected...TX Panhandle into central KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151859Z - 152100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage increasing over next 1-2 hours.
   Sporadic strong gusts are possible, with some locally greater risk
   for a couple of gusts to 50-65 mph from northwest Oklahoma into
   south-central/east-central Kansas. Overall risk appears limited, and
   a watch is not currently expected.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over
   the next 1-2 hours, first across portions of northwest OK into
   central KS, and later this afternoon with southwest extent into the
   TX Panhandle. Convective initiation is most imminent across
   south-central KS where deepening cumulus and recent lightning
   activity is noted. This activity is developing within a modestly
   unstable boundary layer in the vicinity of a pre-frontal
   trough/remnant outflow. This area is on the southern fringe of
   stronger effective shear focused near/north of a surface cold front
   oriented across northern/central KS into the northern TX Panhandle.
   This could provide sufficient support transient organized cells and
   multicells. 

   Areas of strong heating have allowed temperatures to warm into the
   90s, supporting very steep low-level lapse rates. While the
   thermodynamic and kinematic parameter space is expected to remain
   modest, the well-mixed boundary layer and steep low-level lapse
   rates could support sporadic strong wind gusts. Overall severe
   potential appears limited/transient and a severe thunderstorm watch
   is not currently anticipated.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 09/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34500252 34710258 35030239 35570183 36500082 37729920
               38479741 38749652 38679612 38439594 38189591 37879602
               37599635 36889769 35589973 34220109 33940165 33910219
               34240239 34500252 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN