US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2295

Published Date and Time: 2026-09-14 19:20:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 2295
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0618 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Nebraska into southwestern Iowa

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 669...

   Valid 142318Z - 150015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 669 continues.

   SUMMARY...Multiple severe gusts are possible over the next few
   hours, especially across southeastern NE. A couple of tornadoes may
   occur, mainly over southwestern IA.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple linear segments have developed over the past
   couple of hours, accompanied by severe gusts. These storms will
   continue to progress eastward amid appreciably strong mid-level flow
   atop a well-mixed boundary layer, accompanied by a severe gust
   threat. At the moment, the greatest short-term severe threat exists
   with storms over southeastern NE, where surface temperatures into
   the 80s F to near 90 F, are promoting downward momentum mixing
   potential. As these storms progress into southwestern IA, they will
   traverse a baroclinic zone with somewhat cooler surface temperatures
   (e.g. low 80s F), but with a more moist boundary layer given low 70s
   F dewpoints. Destabilization of this boundary layer is somewhat
   uncertain. However, should the southwest IA boundary layer
   destabilize, backed low-level flow and accompanying enlarged
   hodographs (per OAX VADs) suggest that a couple of QLCS tornadoes
   may develop, with a severe gust threat also continuing.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40309736 41189682 41829559 42129455 41909384 41249348
               40679416 40309540 40139627 39989729 40309736 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN



Source link

Leave a Reply