Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026
Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 130020Z - 130145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few instances of severe hail and perhaps wind remain a
concern over the next few hours. Still, the severe threat should
remain isolated, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Multiple transient supercells and short line segments
continue to propagate southeast along an axis of weak 700 mb
frontogenesis and to the north of a primary surface baroclinic
boundary. These storms currently appear elevated in nature, and have
had a history of producing severe hail up to golfballs in size. Over
3000 J/kg MUCAPE precedes these storms, and given stronger mid-level
flow overspreading this region, effective bulk shear is over 60 kts.
Furthermore, surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/70s
across southeast KS/southwest MO suggests that a potentially surface
airmass resides downstream. As such, these storms may remain severe
for a few more hours, accompanied by mainly a severe hail threat,
though severe gusts may also occur. Nonetheless, the severe threat
should remain isolated, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
not anticipated.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 09/13/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37399555 38149624 38599664 38879684 39059684 39139678
39159656 39089608 38779543 38579485 37869380 37199349
36789356 36509383 36449416 36549492 36949526 37399555
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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