Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2161

   Mesoscale Discussion 2161
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1137 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northwest and west-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635...

   Valid 280437Z - 280600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 635
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe gusts will remain possible with
   the small bowing complex moving southward tonight. How long the
   complex remains severe is uncertain, but an isolated wind risk may
   persist for a few more hours. A downstream watch is not expected,
   but convective trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...The ongoing bowing complex near the KS/NE state line
   has remained relatively intense as it moved southward this evening
   across WW635. However, MRMS 7km CAPPI and Echo Tops show the
   stronger cores have begun to lose some intensity in the last hour.
   This is forecast to continue as the complex moves farther south into
   increasing nocturnal inhibition. Despite the weakening trend, recent
   measured gusts of 58 and 60 mph in Decatur County, KS show the
   bowing segment remains severe. The risk for at least isolated strong
   to severe gusts may persist for another few hours tonight into
   west-central KS before the complex weakens below severe limits. How
   far south this may occur remains unclear. WW635 has been extended in
   time and area to 0600z and a downstream WW is not currently
   anticipated. Convective trends will be monitored if more than an
   isolated severe risk develops.

   ..Lyons.. 08/28/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   40060098 40059951 39159916 38269908 38050012 38260093
               38940111 40060098 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN