Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2156

   Mesoscale Discussion 2156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0606 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   Areas affected...Hudson Valley into parts of southern New England

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631...

   Valid 272306Z - 280030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 631
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging winds and a conditional brief tornado
   threat will continue into early evening. Storms will gradually
   weaken east of the Hudson Valley. No additional watches are
   expected.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last 2 hours, marginal supercell structures
   have generally evolved into small linear segments. The impacts of a
   less unstable airmass to the east and outflow from the south have
   likely contributed to a modest decrease in storm organization. The
   strongest activity in the Hudson Valley vicinity will still be
   capable of isolated wind damage into early evening. A brief tornado
   remains possible given some SRH enhancement on the KENX VAD, though
   low-level thermodynamics have limited mesocyclone intensity late
   this afternoon. With time, a gradual weakening trends is likely to
   be observed as storms move into southern New England. Additional
   watches are not expected this evening.

   ..Wendt.. 08/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

   LAT...LON   41387616 43187398 43397317 43317273 42807264 41987276
               41837333 41207582 41387616 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH