Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2145

   Mesoscale Discussion 2145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0957 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

   Areas affected...far eastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...New York
   City...and northern Delaware

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 271457Z - 271700Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of damaging winds,
   marginally severe hail, and perhaps a brief tornado may increase by
   late morning into early afternoon. Convective trends are being
   monitored for a possible watch.

   DISCUSSION...A broken band of thunderstorms is ongoing as of
   mid-morning from the New York City vicinity southwest toward
   Baltimore, with that activity potentially being aided by forcing for
   ascent associated with a low-amplitude disturbance moving into VA,
   per water vapor imagery. The inflow air mass to these storms is
   moist with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s, and where
   stronger heating can occur, expect MLCAPE to increase to 1000-1500
   J/kg by early afternoon.

   A number of 12Z CAMs suggest the ongoing storms are likely to
   persist into early afternoon amidst the destabilizing environment.
   In that scenario, the presence of a vertically veering wind profile
   with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear (see current DIX VWP) would
   support a conditional risk for embedded supercell structures capable
   of locally damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a
   brief tornado.

   ..Mead/Mosier.. 08/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   39857580 40727540 41187489 41437413 41367351 40827327
               39777390 39247433 39197502 39517570 39857580 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN