Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2132

   Mesoscale Discussion 2132
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado into far western
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 252324Z - 260100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Some threat exists for severe wind and hail with ongoing
   storms. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a WW
   issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells/supercells have matured over
   eastern CO over the past few hours as upslope flow of a moistened
   and heated airmass has encouraged relatively robust but sparse
   convective initiation. These storms are benefiting from 7+ C/km
   mid-level lapse rates and accompanying 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE, as
   well as 30 kts of effective bulk shear. Given relatively limited
   shear and flow, storms are expected to remain relatively sparse and
   slow moving. Severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms,
   but it is currently unclear how widespread severe coverage will be.
   Nonetheless, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the
   need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37910480 38790385 39200301 39320230 39130173 38750154
               38230150 37680164 37280211 37190286 37230379 37340453
               37910480 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN