Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2119

   Mesoscale Discussion 2119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242159Z - 242330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing risk of
   large hail and severe wind gusts. It is unclear if a watch is
   needed, though trends are being monitored.

   DISCUSSION...An isolated thunderstorm is evolving along the surface
   trough/wind shift in central SD, with additional agitated
   boundary-layer cumulus nearby. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop an
   increasingly unstable PBL is yielding moderate surface-based
   buoyancy, which combined with an elongating/straight hodograph
   (around 40 kt of effective shear), will support splitting supercells
   and small organized clusters. The primary concern will be large to
   very large hail and locally severe wind gusts. It is unclear how
   many storms will develop, given somewhat modest large-scale forcing
   for ascent and some lingering inhibition at the base of the EML.
   However, given the favorable environment, trends are being monitored
   and a watch is at least being considered.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   44310145 44740151 45680122 45820092 45900021 45849985
               45629954 45319943 44929939 44279960 43879992 43760060
               43900117 44310145 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN