Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2113

   Mesoscale Discussion 2113
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1153 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

   Areas affected...southeast Alabama and the central Florida Panhandle
   into the lower Savannah River Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 241653Z - 241930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts are possible
   with thunderstorms developing across the region this afternoon. A
   watch is unlikely due to the expected limited coverage of the
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and lightning data indicate a
   gradually deepening cumulus field and incipient thunderstorm
   development ahead of a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the
   region and along evolving sea breeze boundaries. The 12Z observed
   soundings across the region sampled a very moist boundary layer,
   contributing to a strongly unstable air mass for elevated parcels.
   Since those observations, surface temperatures have warmed into the
   lower 90s with steepening low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE of
   2000-3000 J/kg.

   Generally weak vertical shear and the absence of appreciable
   large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to limit the potential
   for an organized thunderstorm complex to evolve. However, the degree
   of instability will support vigorous pulse storms capable of locally
   damaging wind gusts through the remainder of the afternoon.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 08/24/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30868588 31358570 31528442 31448288 31888186 32778085
               32708046 32388034 31338103 30408133 29888190 29848296
               29838396 29938516 30248568 30868588 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH