Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2076

   Mesoscale Discussion 2076
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0647 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of east-central Colorado and west-central
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 212347Z - 220145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe wind gusts and
   large hail during the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Several thunderstorms have recently intensified along a
   subtle surface boundary and in a zone of enhanced low-level
   convergence near a surface low in east-central CO. This activity is
   evolving along the eastern periphery of a large-scale ridge, where
   around 40 kt of effective shear is promoting convective organization
   (including supercells). These storms should continue tracking slowly
   southward along a buoyancy gradient, where a deeply mixed PBL will
   promote severe wind gusts over the next couple hours. Isolated
   instances of large hail will also be possible with the longer-lived
   supercell structures.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   38340362 38880375 39290372 39380350 39350311 39140246
               38710195 38000179 37720207 37690273 38000328 38340362 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN