Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2068

   Mesoscale Discussion 2068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0135 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

   Areas affected...portions of Nebraska into northern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 211835Z - 212030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe storms capable of
   large hail in excess of two inches and severe wind gusts up to 70-80
   mph is expected to increase by mid to late afternoon. Convective
   trends are being monitored for one or multiple severe thunderstorm
   watches.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of elevated thunderstorms have persisted so
   far today from the NE Sandhills into eastern NE with activity
   potentially being aided by a weak mid-level disturbance moving into
   northern NE. The 18Z OAX sounding suggests that storms are likely
   rooted above a relatively dry layer extending from just above the
   ground to 3-4 km AGL with the presence of steep mid-level lapse
   rates contributing to MUCAPE of 1500-2500+ J/kg.

   Considerable uncertainty still exists in storm evolution through the
   remainder of the afternoon. More recent storm development northeast
   of McCook, NE is occurring closer to a front-outflow composite
   boundary, ahead of which temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s
   to around 90 with steepening low-level lapse rates. That activity
   may intensify as it continues southeast into a hotter, more unstable
   air mass in place over northwest and north-central KS. 

   Elsewhere, ongoing elevated thunderstorms from north-central into
   eastern NE may also intensify through mid/late afternoon amidst a
   kinematic environment featuring 40-50+ kt of deep-layer shear, which
   is conditionally supportive of supercell storm modes. The strongest
   storms will be capable of large hail, potentially in excess of two
   inches, as well as damaging wind gusts up to 70-80 mph.

   ..Mead/Smith.. 08/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   38939874 39100007 39720089 40700152 41560151 42070117
               42300068 42289963 42009741 40959604 40259573 39239634
               38929692 38809754 38939874 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN