Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2055

   Mesoscale Discussion 2055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0333 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast Arkansas into northern Mississippi and
   northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 202033Z - 202230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms will be capable of primarily damaging
   downburst winds and perhaps isolated large hail. A watch is possible
   depending on convective trends over the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms are in the process of
   developing within parts of the Mid-South into the Southeast. The
   highest coverage of storms will likely occur ahead of a weak
   perturbation in southern Arkansas and where temperatures have
   reached the upper 90s F. Rich surface moisture/large PWAT values and
   steeper than typical mid-level lapse rates will support a threat for
   damaging downburst winds and perhaps isolated large hail. A greater
   localized wind threat may emerge as storm outflows congeal amid a
   weakly sheared environment. Cooler air is evident farther east where
   outflow continues to modify. Storm coverage there is less certain. A
   watch is possible for portions of these regions depending on
   convective trends the remainder of this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Smith.. 08/20/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33139204 33659228 34059186 34538920 34508803 34068768
               33448777 33148825 33139204 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN