Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2043

   Mesoscale Discussion 2043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

   Areas affected...parts of east central and southeastern Arizona

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192008Z - 192245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to slowly increase and
   spread westward off the higher terrain through 2-4 PM MST.  A severe
   weather watch may be needed at some point, once storms begin to
   consolidate into an evolving cluster, but this may not be until
   later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Substantive destabilization is ongoing across much of
   central and southern Arizona, within a seasonably moist air mass
   boosted by a recent surge from the Gulf of California.  Latest
   objective analysis indicates that strongest potential instability
   has become focused to immediate southwest and west of the higher
   terrain of east central into southeastern Arizona, where inhibition
   has been eroding most appreciably.  As this continues over the next
   few hours, a slow propagation off the higher terrain straddling the
   southern Arizona/New Mexico border may commence by 21-23Z, with
   strong downbursts posing increasing potential for strong to severe
   surface gusts within a strongly heated and deep mixed
   boundary-layer.  Increasing thunderstorm development closer to the
   southeastern Arizona international border may also begin to impact
   the Tucson vicinity.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   34381124 33891042 33451018 32550860 31370931 31091055
               31251136 31741145 32811055 34071176 34381124 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN