Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2027

   Mesoscale Discussion 2027
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

   Areas affected...Central/eastern Gulf Coast into North Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182020Z - 182215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible this afternoon. A
   watch is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed along the Gulf
   breeze front within a very moist (low 70s F dewpoints), high PWAT
   (2-2.5 in.) airmass. 12Z/18Z observed soundings from the region
   showed poor mid-level lapse rates. This, and very weak shear, will
   keep storms unorganized. However, water-loaded downdrafts may
   produce locally damaging winds with low-level lapse having steepened
   substantially this afternoon.

   ..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30638949 30869014 31808990 32338818 31658615 31078521
               30788268 30668159 30388133 29548123 29618318 30238602
               30638949 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH