Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2020

   Mesoscale Discussion 2020
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

   Areas affected...much of central and northern Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592...

   Valid 180102Z - 180200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and hail should continue to accompany
   ongoing supercells for at least a few more hours. Some supercells
   may exit the eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 592.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are in progress across much of
   central and northern NE, with a severe-wind producing supercell also
   poised to cross into Cherry County, NE from SD. The 00Z LBF observed
   sounding showed minimal capping in place, with near 8 C/km mid-level
   lapse rates overspreading a well-mixed boundary layer amid an
   elongated straight hodograph (and 30+ kts of effective bulk shear).
   These conditions will support continued severe wind/hail potential
   for at least a few more hours, until boundary layer stabilization
   sets in. An instance of 2+ inch diameter hail or a 75+ mph gust
   cannot be ruled out. Some of the latest HRRR runs also depict
   upscale growth into an MCS in central NE. However, confidence in
   this scenario remains uncertain given the resistance of storms to
   grow upscale thus far. Some of the supercells in central NE are
   splitting and approaching counties outside of the ongoing Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch. A WW issuance may be needed farther to the east
   if confidence increases in a longer-term severe threat for eastern
   NE.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42940283 42989835 42769713 42419676 42099681 41179824
               40729950 40590054 40570116 40640160 40950208 42940283 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN