Mesoscale Discussion 2010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1031 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026
Areas affected...parts of west central into central Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 171531Z - 171730Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk for
strong surface gusts approaching severe limits, with perhaps a
period of some increase in peak gusts, before probably weakening by
early afternoon. It is not clear that this requires a severe
weather watch, but trends are being monitored.
DISCUSSION...The most prominent convection has become confined to a
shrinking, but still fairly vigorous core approaching the Fort Smith
vicinity. There have been fluctuations in intensity, but a recent
increase may be associated with increasing updraft inflow of moist
air characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Based on
Rapid Refresh output this is focused in a narrow corridor along and
north of a southward advancing baroclinic zone in the 925-850 mb
layer, which may continue to slowly advance southward across the
I-40 corridor of western through central Arkansas into midday.
Radar data indicates the continuing presence of strong inflow (on
the order of 50-70+ kt) into the rear of the convective system
near/above 1 km AGL. However, aside from a severe gust to 51 kt at
Muskogee around 1421Z, peak surface gusts have mostly been near or
below 45 kt based on mesonet observations.
Based on latest objective instability analysis, it is possible that
activity could be maintained into the 17-19Z time frame. As it
approaches the Little Rock vicinity, a period of increasing
potential for severe gusts might not be out of the question, before
possibly acquiring updraft inflow of drier/less unstable air and
weakening, as has generally been suggested by convection-allowing
guidance.
..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/17/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35959447 35619282 35029276 34829337 35309465 35549453
35959447
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
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