Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2005

   Mesoscale Discussion 2005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0600 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of far south-central Pennsylvania into
   Maryland...D.C....and northern and central Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588...

   Valid 162300Z - 170000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 588
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts may occur with ongoing storms over
   the next few hours. The severe threat should remain relatively more
   isolated.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cold-pool-driven MCS, with a
   history of numerous damaging gusts, is cresting the Blue Ridge
   Mountains and is poised to approach the Chesapeake Bay over the next
   few hours. Surface temperatures remain in the 80s F, with low-level
   lapse rates still around 7 C/km per 22Z mesoanalysis. Nonetheless,
   nocturnal cooling will begin soon along the East Coast, which will
   further reduce instability. In the near-term a few damaging gusts
   remain possible with storms along the leading edge of a cold pool.
   The best chance for a damaging or even severe gust will be with
   storms propagating toward central VA, where boundary-layer
   instability is strongest.

   ..Squitieri.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37487868 39777754 40287726 40407699 40277675 39727666
               39057657 38187646 37577654 37277683 37187737 37237826
               37487868 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH