Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 2001

   Mesoscale Discussion 2001
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0311 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

   Areas affected...central and southern Missouri into southwest
   Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 162011Z - 162215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe storms capable of mainly damaging
   wind gusts is expected to increase across the area late this
   afternoon into evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite and surface observations indicate a
   couple of boundaries remnant from earlier storms located over the
   region as of 20Z. Objective analysis shows, and visible satellite
   confirms residual capping over northeast and east-central MO into
   adjacent west-central and southwest IL. To the south of those areas
   over central and southern MO, temperatures have warmed to around 100
   F with considerably more boundary-layer-based cumulus development,
   coincident with an uncapped environment with MLCAPE of 2000-3000
   J/kg. That area resides to the south of the stronger forcing for
   ascent and associated, stronger mid-level flow related to an MCV
   moving along the IA-MO border.

   Variability exists across the latest CAM guidance and time-lagged
   ensembles in specific details regarding the preferred location(s)
   for storm development later this afternoon. In general, there is a
   signal for eventual upscale growth of initial more discrete storms
   into an MCS, which tracks into southern IL this evening. Given the
   presence of a hot, well-mixed boundary layer already in place across
   central and southern MO, the setup appears favorable for at least
   isolated damaging wind gusts with the most intense storms. A more
   concentrated area of damaging wind potential may materialize this
   evening should storms merge into an MCS along a coalescing cold
   pool. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch
   issuance.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 08/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   37769388 38189411 38729359 39219213 39219124 39339005
               39088955 38198923 37698931 37078993 37019147 37179255
               37429339 37769388 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH