| Mesoscale Discussion 1997 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1997 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Areas affected...eastern Ohio...western Pennsylvania...western and northern West Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586... Valid 161828Z - 162030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for mainly damaging wind gusts is expected to spread east across the watch area through the remainder of the afternoon. DISCUSSION...A QLCS with two distinct bowing segments has evolved over eastern OH as of 1815Z, with the TCMH terminal Doppler radar indicating outbound velocities up to 60 kt in the 0.5-1 kft layer near and east of Zanesville. Decreasing clouds downstream from the QLCS over western PA will support further destabilization, allowing the convective system to continue east through the remainder of the afternoon. The ILN VWP has shown a steady increase in westerly winds in the 1-6 km AGL layer since late morning, which will sustain the ongoing bowing structures and related, organized cold pools. As such, expect the threat for damaging winds to progressively spread east across the watch area this afternoon, particularly in the vicinity of the embedded bows. Around 30 kt of 0-3 km shear oriented largely perpendicular to the QLCS may support some brief tornado potential, especially near and north of the apexes of the bows. Farther south, a separate line segment has evolved over northwest WV within a similar environment, suggesting a damaging wind risk with that activity as well. ..Mead.. 08/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 38958272 40318219 41108168 41458045 41487939 41037897 40197928 39387963 38638011 38028093 37758123 38058202 38958272 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH |
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