Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151432 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hernan Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 500 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Hernan continues to remain a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no active deep convection. A recent OSCAT pass showed that the winds are around 25 kts at most in the northern portions of the cyclone. Considering a possibility of undersampling and that the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix had a wind estimate of 30 kt, the intensity has been held at 30 kt for this advisory. Given that the cyclone is moving into an area of higher shear and drier air, Hernan is expected to continue to weaken and become a remnant low later today. The current forecast calls for a slow decay of Hernan to a trough in 60 to 72 h in agreement with the global models. The initial motion is 260/12 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer Hernan and its remnants westward for the next few days. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little faster than, the previous track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 16.1N 134.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 16.2N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 16/1200Z 16.4N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0000Z 16.5N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z 16.7N 142.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/0000Z 16.9N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Berg
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