Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1982

   Mesoscale Discussion 1982
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0502 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

   Areas affected...northern Virginia into north-central North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 142202Z - 150000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Continued risk for damaging wind may continue through the
   late afternoon/early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Mixed mode thunderstorm activity is ongoing along and
   south of a surface boundary across portions of Virginia this
   afternoon. A cluster has developed across south-central Virginia and
   is moving southeastward. The environment downstream of this cluster
   is moderately to strongly unstable. Daytime heating has allowed
   temperatures to rise into the mid 90s, with steepening low-level
   lapse rates. Deep layer shear decreases with southward extent but it
   is possible that with cold pool organization, the damaging wind
   potential may increase as this line shifts southeastward into the
   favorable environment.

   Closer to the northern boundary within the more favorable deep layer
   shear, a supercell is moving south east across north-central
   Virginia. While deep layer shear is sufficient, low level flow is
   fairly week. This will likely keep the main threats to large hail
   and damaging wind. Watch issuance is being considered soon.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 08/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   37277960 37777917 38097884 38217845 38167791 37907735
               37517707 37047713 36617739 36287838 36327889 36657958
               37277960 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN