Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1978

   Mesoscale Discussion 1978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0235 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern/eastern New York into southern
   New England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141935Z - 142130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Lop-topped thunderstorms may bring an isolated risk for
   damaging wind gusts (and perhaps an instance of marginally severe
   hail) to portions of New York and southern New England this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a cluster of ongoing
   thunderstorms that have recently progressed from southern Ontario
   into Upstate New York immediately ahead of a mid-level shortwave
   trough evident in visible satellite imagery. Cold mid-level
   temperatures associated with this shortwave and steep low-level
   lapse rates have allowed for the development of weak buoyancy (on
   the order of a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE), which is sufficient for a
   few relatively low-topped thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly,
   mid-to-upper level flow (sampled by the TYX VWP) is supporting
   modest effective shear (25-35+ kts) and some updraft organization.
   While it remains unclear how long ongoing convection will be
   maintained owing to limited available buoyancy, forcing associated
   with the mid-level shortwave may allow for the persistence of
   ongoing convection southeastward toward southern New England and/or
   additional downstream development through the afternoon. Should this
   occur, isolated damaging wind gusts (and perhaps an instance of
   marginally severe hail in the near-term) are possible. Watch
   issuance is not anticipated as the limited thermodynamic environment
   is expected to largely temper convective intensity.

   ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43057577 43467624 44067628 44467592 44637542 44627490
               44207409 43067253 42737209 42367162 42047161 41727173
               41437216 41267276 41477382 42027461 43057577 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN