Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026
000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141439 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 500 AM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 After being devoid of convection through much of the night, an uptick in showers and thunderstorms is now occurring north and east of the completely exposed center. An earlier microwave pass indicated established bands to the north and east of the system, with less-defined organization to the south and west. However, objective and subjective intensity estimates range from 25-41 kt. Given these estimates and the recent increase in convection, the intensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory. The tropical storm has continued on a southward track longer than previously forecast, but it has begun to turn toward the south-southwest over the past few hours as it is steered by a low-level ridge positioned between Hernan and Tropical Storm Lala, which is approaching the Hawaiian Island chain. A turn toward the southwest, followed by a west-southwestward motion, is expected later today and through the weekend as a mid-level ridge builds to the northwest. Given the storm's farther south initial position, the latest NHC track has been shifted to the left of the previous track and lies between the previous forecast and various consensus aids. Despite moving over warm sea surface temperatures, Hernan continues to contend with strong west-northwesterly wind shear. Mid-level dry air is also expected to wrap around the western and southern portions of the circulation today and tonight, causing gradual weakening. Simulated satellite imagery from the ECMWF and GFS suggest that organized convection will dissipate later today or tonight, although a closed circulation could persist this weekend. The latest NHC forecast calls for Hernan to weaken to a remnant low within 24 h and open into a trough by 72 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.4N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.1N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 16/0000Z 15.0N 136.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1200Z 14.9N 138.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0000Z 15.1N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Adams/Cangialosi
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