Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1975

   Mesoscale Discussion 1975
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0130 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

   Areas affected...Central IN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 140630Z - 140830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Wind-damage potential will spread east-southeastward with
   an ongoing storm cluster, though longevity of the threat is
   uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...A small southeastward-moving storm cluster has evolved
   across west-central IN, with another isolated strong to potentially
   severe storm ongoing north of Indianapolis. This somewhat elevated
   convection has developed north of an outflow-reinforced front,
   within a low-level warm-advection regime that will continue for much
   of the overnight. MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and 30-40 kt of effective
   shear will continue to support organized storms.

   The modest upscale growth noted across west-central IN could lead to
   an increase in wind-damage potential over the next 1-2 hours.
   However, the magnitude of the threat is uncertain due to lingering
   near-surface stability, and recent objective mesoanalyses depict
   decreasing MUCAPE and increasing MUCINH with southeastward extent.
   If a robust cold pool can become established, then a more organized
   wind-damage threat could evolve across a larger portion of central
   IN with time. Otherwise, localized strong/damaging gusts will
   continue to be possible, and some potential for isolated hail may
   persist with the remaining semi-discrete cells.

   ..Dean/Mosier.. 08/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...

   LAT...LON   40058750 40298729 40398677 40238590 40088546 39828528
               39608523 39518562 39488633 39498710 39598733 39838748
               40058750 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN